Sudan Conflict Analysis: International Crisis Group 2025 Report
Introduction
According to the ICG’s 2025 report, 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2025, Sudan’s conflict comes out as the most devastating in the world, with more than twelve million people displaced and another group facing difficult conditions. Because the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are pitted against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under Mohamed “Hemedti,” Sudan’s society and economy have been halted. In this paper, I look at the Sudan conflict through the lens of two major issues that could make it worse, according to the ICG report. support coming from outside countries, along with a growing humanitarian emergency for the people. It reviews ICG concerns, investigates why these issues exist, checks their prevalence across the globe and outlines an action plan using more understandings to support its conclusions.
Agreement with ICG’s Concerns
I also share the authors’ concerns that outside intervention and issues in the humanitarian sector could drive the Sudan conflict further. The ICG says the war is prolonged because the UAE is supplying weapons to the RSF and Eritrea backs the SAF (2025, 3). Posts on Twitter confirm that weapons used in RSF drone attacks come from China, agreeing with the ICG’s prediction (CAP Security 2025). The crisis now is deep, with around a third of Sudan’s population displaced and Darfur in a state of famine. UN officials report that 25 million people require support and this highlights the ICG’s concern that intense mistreatment could weaken the whole area (UN News 2024, 1). Because of these factors, the cycle of violence and hardship will likely become more serious if nothing interferes. It is especially interesting that the ICG emphasizes how external assistance can sometimes drag conflicts on for a longer period.
Basis for the Two Identified Issues
External Support for Belligerents
According to the ICG report, arms being supplied by outsiders contribute to Sudan’s conflict becoming more severe and lasting for longer. X and many news outlets have confirmed that the UAE’s supply of weapons, including drones, used by the RSF in Port Sudan, has sparked more violence in the area. Sudan Tribune 2024, 2). Support from Eritrea for the SAF which was shown by General Hamed ‘s April 2025 visit, drives the conflict even more (International Crisis Group 2025, 8). This stems from geopolitical interests: The UAE is aiming for influence in the Red Sea, while Eritrea is working to limit RSF’s activities in the region. They support ongoing fighting, divide Sudan and affect the efforts for peace. News of Iranian drones involved suggests a larger and more complex web of arms trade (Sudan Tribune 2024, 2).
Intensifying Humanitarian Crisis
The crisis for people affected by the war involves 12 million who are displaced and widespread food shortages, mostly due to the blockage of food supplies and aid. It mentions that famine hit Darfur and poor food supplies continue to affect a large quarter of the population (International Crisis Group 2025, 3). According to UN sources, 25 million people in Sudan are facing added challenges caused by the destruction of aid services (UN News 2024, 1). Relief Web 2025, 2). Destruction of farmland by the conflict and the blocking of trade by the SAF and RSF have severely limited the production of food. Sexual violence which is described as very severe, only makes things worse for people in Darfur, especially due to extensive reporting’s of large-scale assaults in the area that have caused many more to leave their homes (UN Women 2024, 1). As a result of this crisis, many people become desperate which could make them join armed groups and lead to problems spreading to other regions, as seen with the refugees arriving in Chad.
Problems Faced by the International Community
External assistance and humanitarian disasters are both often present during conflicts around the world. Foreign interference is commonly a cause of wars going on for much longer, as can be seen in Syria and Yemen. There are many cases of displacement and famine which are common humanitarian crises, in places like South Sudan and the DRC. Its situation is similar to regional trends, yet the number of displaced there, nearly a third of the population, is much more significant (International Crisis Group 2025, 3). While foreign weapons and significant hardship for civilians are similar to many prolonged battles, everyone seems to pay closer attention because of the region’s importance.
Examples of Common Issues
External Support
In Syria, Assad’s regime got support from Russia and Iran and the U.S. and Gulf states supported the rebels which meant the fighting lasted over a decade (International Crisis Group 2024, 4). Just as in Sudan, the fighting between the government and the Houthis in Yemen has been inflamed by arms supplied by Saudi Arabia and Iran (International Crisis Group 2023, 10). These problems prove that foreign interests often help sustain conflicts, much as the UAE and Eritrea did in Sudan’s case. Because Sudan’s tribes lack unity, outside influence seekers succeed in maintaining a foothold in Sudan.
Humanitarian Crises
As a result of ethnic fighting and aid difficulties, South Sudan’s conflict has forced 4 million people to leave their homes and brought about famine (International Crisis Group 2025, 8). About 7 million people in the DRC are displaced due to fighting between militias and millions more are struggling with food insecurity (Left Relief Web 2025 report, 3). Just as the Sudan crisis is due to refugee migration brought on by war and limited ongoing aid, these issues also result from the same causes. Darfur’s extremely difficult conditions due to famine, while staying in Sudan, helped make the country’s sexual abuse and population displacement statistics particularly severe (UN Women 2024, 1). Due to the crisis being so large and the borders in Sudan being open, the conflict increases the threat of instability throughout the region.
Proposed Intervention
Because of help from the international community and the collapse of humanitarian support, using mediation with a 2nd-generation peacekeeping force is the most effective solution. Led by the AU and with the help of neutral countries like Turkey, mediation could persuade suppliers like the UAE and Eritrea to end their arms supply to Ethiopia as requested by the ICG (International Crisis Group 2025, 13). The AU’s activities in Sudan form a useful base for progress (International Crisis Group 2025, 13). Held in the context of a 2nd-generation UN peacekeeping mission supported by the AU, the operation would offer aid corridor protection and help to improve governance, as well as work on community issues. This option is safer than other measures, since it focuses on bringing food for the suffering people and bringing stability in Darfur where there is famine (UN News 2024, 2). Carrying out sanctions on arms suppliers can help, but this approach risks also isolating the UAE. The second phase, in Mali and elsewhere, involves security, helping with reconstruction, tackling challenges from abroad and supporting talk among the local people. Bringing in local tribal leaders for mediation, like in Blue Nile, might help earn more trust and solve the country’s unique issues (Relief Web 2024, 5).
Conclusion
The fact that Sudan is receiving weapons from UAE and that people are being displaced in large numbers proves the ICG’s concerns about these issues are justified. Syria and South Sudan have similar issues and the worldwide trends are seen, but Sudan is at greater risk because it is strategic. If a mediation and 2nd-generation peacekeeping strategy is used, it is most likely to result in a decrease in tension, minimize human suffering and establish a stable environment. More involvement from local people and consideration of tribe-related issues would increase the performance of the intervention. Time is short and action is needed to prevent new cracks and spill-over in the region.
Bibliography
CAP Security. “New @amnesty report reveals that the UAE is once again supplying the Sudanese RSF with weapons.” X post, May 12, 2025.
https://t.co/ORMLKwuBzu.
International Crisis Group. “10 Conflicts to Watch in 2025.” January 1, 2025.
https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-conflicts-watch-2025.
Relief Web. “Aid Workers Warn over Sudan Crisis: ‘Time Is of the Essence.’” January 15, 2025.
https://reliefweb.int/report/sudan/aid-workers-warn-over-sudan-crisis-time-essence.
Relief Web. “Positive Developments in Sudan, But Still Major Issues in Darfur, Blue Nile and South Kordofan.” November 10, 2024.
https://reliefweb.int/report/sudan/positive-developments-sudan-still-major-issues-darfur-blue-nile-south-kordofan.
Sudan Tribune. “Sudan War: Iranian Drones Played Decisive Role in Omdurman Battle.” March 10, 2024.
https://sudantribune.com/article283026/.
UN News. “Sudan: UN Aid Operation Continues Amid Dire Humanitarian Conditions.” December 20, 2024.
https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/12/1166931.
UN Women. “‘Staggering’ Scale of Sexual Violence in Sudan.” August 14, 2024.
https://www.unwomen.org/en/news-stories/feature-story/2024/08/staggering-scale-of-sexual-violence-in-sudan.
